Bitcoin Downs on Crisis of U.S. Government Shutdown

Around $1 billion Liquidated in Futures Market on Dec. 20
U.S. Congress Fails to Pass Next Year's Federal Budget Agreement
Anxiety in the Asset Market Rise…BTC/Altcoin Deepens Decline
Experts "BTC Rebound Following All-Time Santa Rally Pattern"

Bitcoin(BTC) fell on Dec. 20 due to a series of liquidations in the futures market and unstable U.S. political conditions.

According to data from the on-chain analysis platform CoinGlass, the liquidation generated in the cryptocurrency futures market after Bitcoin plunged below $96,000 reached $1 billion on Dec. 20.

The liquidation of long and short bets recorded $878 million and $160 million, respectively, on Dec. 20. After Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve's press conference on Dec. 19, when the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, plunged, futures investors bet on the rise, and this bet led to a massive liquidation.

The U.S. federal government's temporary suspension(shutdown) crisis has prevented a rebound in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin.

The U.S. Congress, which originally had to deal with next year's budget in September, pushed for a new budget bill between the ruling and opposition parties, with only the temporary budget bill passed by three months, which will be applied by the 20th of this month. However, as Trump announced that he did not agree with the new budget, the U.S. Congress had difficulty passing the budget bill.

If the U.S. Congress fails to pass the new budget for next year by today, Dec. 20, the U.S. federal government could experience a shutdown from tomorrow, Dec. 21.

Bitcoin was down about 4.6% from the previous day. The decline of altcoins was even more significant. Ethereum(ETH), Solana(SOL), and Dogecoin(DOGE) fell about 9%, 8%, and 12%, respectively on Dec. 20.

◇Bitcoin = Bitcoin price is $97,916 at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 20, 2024. The Bitcoin share(dominance) was 58.85%.

The long(up) and short(down) betting ratios in the Bitcoin futures market stood at 61.67% and 38.33%, according to the on-chain analytics platform Sigbtc.

An analysis has been raised that Bitcoin will soon rebound this year based on past patterns that have always risen during the Christmas season when Bitcoin faced half-life and strengthened.

"Despite some recent adjustments, there is a lot of expectation that Bitcoin could hit a high price in the Christmas week," VinCrypto reported. "In line with the precedent of Bitcoin's surge in the half-life year, many experts are predicting a Santa rally in 2024."

In fact, Bitcoin rose 12, 68%, 11.25%, and 25.63%, respectively, in 2012, 2016, and 2020 Christmas seasons, which were considered half-life and bull market years.

2024 is recorded as the year of half-life and the year of Bitcoin's all-time strength, with Bitcoin continuing to break new highs countless times. Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin's price has risen by about 137%.

On Dec. 20, Glassnode's Bitcoin cycle oscillator figure recorded 0.70, and it said that the price of Bitcoin is at the bottom, staying well below the long-term average. Based on these data, experts in on-chain analysis predicted that Bitcoin will rebound over the Christmas week and continue to break new highs again.

◇Upward Coin = The cryptocurrency that recorded the largest increase from the previous trading day at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 20 was Mocabus(MOCA), which rose about17.37%.

Mokabus is the first blockchain project of its own by global blockchain investor Animoka Brands. It supports deposits and withdrawals through the Ethereum network.

Upbit introduced Mokabus as "a project to secure cultural interoperability of the Web3 ecosystem through token and point systems."

The project will provide various functions from the perspective of education, games, and development to holders of the Mokabus NFT, and will secure utilities in conjunction with several projects in the ecosystem.

◇Fear Greed Index = The cryptocurrency fear-greed index provided by Alternative has entered the 'greed' phase with 74 points. The Greed phase is a phase where price volatility and trading volume increase, and the price increases. As it is highly likely to form a short-term high, caution should be taken in selling.

The cryptocurrency relative strength index(RSI) provided by Sigbtc was 35.2, which was in a 'neutral' state. RSI sets the relative strength between the upward and downward pressure of a particular asset price and is an indicator of a measure of over-purchasing and over-selling of a particular asset.

권승원 기자 ksw@blockstreet.co.kr